Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.698662 8.847775 10.087898 11.523004 13.135172 14.887431 16.933164
2026-02-01 6.045501 7.603508 9.417814 11.675486 14.397459 17.560602 21.500973
2026-02-08 5.088267 6.788624 8.868786 11.580021 14.997199 19.135948 24.499761
2026-02-15 4.351307 6.125759 8.395469 11.478713 15.520041 20.594759 27.400507
2026-02-22 3.853653 5.684594 8.118447 11.543716 16.184733 22.191677 30.480142
2026-03-01 3.534924 5.438220 8.056844 11.859520 17.164223 24.213821 34.183432
2026-03-08 3.115112 4.995644 7.671978 11.679073 17.428664 25.265545 36.611886
2026-03-15 2.668750 4.461821 7.101205 11.174212 17.182134 25.575703 38.007414
2026-03-22 2.499423 4.327919 7.096587 11.477832 18.089589 27.515665 41.737958
2026-03-29 2.329479 4.173331 7.042487 11.693540 18.866822 29.291573 45.298293
2026-04-05 2.112006 3.918090 6.807816 11.608076 19.175467 30.386381 47.903078
2026-04-12 1.908344 3.664339 6.551812 11.464068 19.374319 31.312455 50.280411
2026-04-19 1.749236 3.475026 6.390114 11.466144 19.810421 32.630995 53.331519
2026-04-26 1.622904 3.331317 6.292272 11.563672 20.399858 34.206940 56.839283
2026-05-03 1.481423 3.144177 6.102310 11.487802 20.693808 35.322957 59.665564
2026-05-10 1.349927 2.961763 5.904383 11.380696 20.922896 36.336606 62.360489
2026-05-17 1.256981 2.844163 5.811835 11.447494 21.440739 37.825393 65.855831
2026-05-24 1.205414 2.803892 5.857104 11.760163 22.390736 40.050442 70.613745
2026-05-31 1.095533 2.632174 5.641230 11.581331 22.471468 40.837397 73.047350
2026-06-07 0.958943 2.388675 5.266719 11.080113 21.948781 40.582813 73.737632
2026-06-14 0.923916 2.362372 5.316151 11.381515 22.880848 42.828138 78.683852
2026-06-21 0.881868 2.315953 5.321044 11.595616 23.660689 44.837239 83.294741
2026-06-28 0.813565 2.202048 5.178626 11.510787 23.879538 45.874682 86.274410